South Africa has been facing a number of challenges in recent years, including economic instability, political corruption, and civil unrest. These issues have been exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic, which has had a significant impact on the country’s economy and social fabric. As we move into 2023, there are concerns that civil unrest could break out in South Africa, with a number of factors contributing to this possibility.
Recent Protests and Unrest
In early 2023, there was a surge in protests and social unrest in South Africa, with Municipal IQ reporting a significant increase in the volume of protests(1).
This was largely attributed to growing popular discontent over issues such as load shedding, electricity price increases, water restrictions, crime, and corruption(2). These protests have the potential to escalate into more serious civil unrest if they are not addressed by the government and other stakeholders.
CEO Survey and Africa Business Agenda Report
According to PwC’s 26th Global CEO Survey and Africa Business Agenda Report for 2023, over two-thirds of Southern African CEOs expect to face disruptions from social unrest in the next 12 months(3).
This suggests that there is a high level of concern among business leaders about the potential for civil unrest in the region.
Civil Unrest Index
Maplecroft’s Civil Unrest Index shows that civil unrest in Africa has hit a 6-year high, with 36 African countries seeing an uptick in risk between 2022-Q2 and 2023-Q2(4).
This indicates that South Africa is not alone in facing the risk of civil unrest and that there are broader regional factors at play.
Energy Crisis
South Africa is currently facing an energy crisis, with sustained power outages limiting economic growth and job creation(5).
This has contributed to a wider cost-of-living crisis, which has the potential to fuel social unrest and protests. A lobbyist has warned that South Africa could face protests similar to those that toppled governments in Tunisia and Egypt in 2011 unless it fixes its broken infrastructure(6).
Likelihood of Civil Unrest
Given these factors, it is clear that there is a significant risk of civil unrest breaking out in South Africa in 2023. While it is impossible to predict the exact likelihood of this happening, the combination of economic instability, political corruption, social unrest, and the energy crisis all contribute to a volatile situation. The government and other stakeholders will need to take proactive steps to address these issues and prevent civil unrest from escalating.
Conclusion
South Africa is facing a number of challenges that could contribute to civil unrest in 2023. While it is impossible to predict the future with certainty, the recent surge in protests and social unrest, combined with broader regional factors and the energy crisis, all suggest that there is a significant risk of civil unrest breaking out in the country. The government and other stakeholders will need to take proactive steps to address these issues and prevent civil unrest from escalating.
“It is better to have prepared and never to need it than to be unprepared and be in desperate need of it”.
Be Aware. Be Safe. Be Prepared!